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Eta-expansion can turn trivial RHSs into non-trivial RHSs. That leads to more top-level bindings after the next Simplifier run, meaning more churn. We should therefore only eta-expand (at least trivial RHSs) if we actually need to (OTOH that's only the case for CorePrep).

FloatOut is currently a bit careless in that regard. Consider

module Lib where

import Control.Monad (forever)
import Control.Monad.Trans.State.Strict

inc :: State Int ()
inc = modify' (+1)

m :: State Int ()
m = forever inc

After the second FloatOut (after demand analysis), we have

...

m :: State Int ()
m = ...

Rec {
-- RHS size: {terms: 6, types: 1, coercions: 0, joins: 0/0}
lvl_sOv
  :: GHC.Prim.Int# -> Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ((), Int)
[LclId, Arity=1, Str=<L,U>b, Cpr=b]
lvl_sOv
  = \ (x_aNg :: GHC.Prim.Int#) ->
      a'_sO0 (GHC.Types.I# (GHC.Prim.+# x_aNg 1#))

-- RHS size: {terms: 6, types: 3, coercions: 0, joins: 0/0}
a'_sO0 [Occ=LoopBreaker]
  :: Int -> Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ((), Int)
[LclId, Arity=1, Str=<L,U>b, Cpr=b]
a'_sO0
  = \ (s1_aNP :: Int) ->
      case s1_aNP of { GHC.Types.I# x_aNg [Dmd=<B,A>] -> lvl_sOv x_aNg }
end Rec }

-- RHS size: {terms: 3, types: 1, coercions: 5, joins: 0/0}
a :: State Int ()
[LclIdX,
 Arity=1,
 Str=<B,1*H>b,
 Cpr=b,
 Unf=Unf{Src=InlineStable, TopLvl=True, Value=True, ConLike=True,
         WorkFree=True, Expandable=True,
         Guidance=ALWAYS_IF(arity=0,unsat_ok=True,boring_ok=True)
         Tmpl= a'_sO0
               `cast` (Sym (Control.Monad.Trans.State.Strict.N:StateT[0]
                                <Int>_N <Data.Functor.Identity.Identity>_R <()>_N)
                       :: (Int -> Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ((), Int))
                          ~R# StateT Int Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ())}]
a = (\ (eta_B1 :: Int) -> a'_sO0 eta_B1)
    `cast` (Sym (Control.Monad.Trans.State.Strict.N:StateT[0]
                     <Int>_N <Data.Functor.Identity.Identity>_R <()>_N)
            :: (Int -> Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ((), Int))
               ~R# StateT Int Data.Functor.Identity.Identity ())

Both lvl and the eta-expanded RHS of a (which will lead to yet another top-level binding after the next simplifier run) are unnecessary.

Also we end up allocating an I# box in each loop iteration (in lvl). But that is probably due to the Simplifier refraining from inlining dead-ending functions. Or SetLevels. I don't know. I think we should inline that, but don't know on what grounds and if we would punish code using error by that. I have to understand Note [Bottoming floats]. Or maybe it's because we don't do strictness WW for dead-ending functions. Anyway, the allocation isn't too concerning, but the extra binding is annoying.