I found (when investigating Trac #14955) a binding looking like

   Rec { exported_id = ....big...lcl_id...
       ; lcl_id = exported_id }

but bizarrely 'lcl_id' was chosen as the loop breaker, and never
inlined.  It turned out to be an unintended consequence of the
shortOutIndirections code in SimplCore.  Easily fixed.